Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Catching Up Early

Good morning. It's 6:30 AM, about the time the first alarm usually goes off. Due to my schedule today I thought about sleeping in but instead set the alarm 30 mins earlier than normal to see what's going on in the world. Needless to say, I was feeling a bit left out last night when I went to bed before any State had announced a result, so I thought I'd forgo some sleep on the other side of things, so that I actually got some zzzs.

Weird to think that many friends are probably up partying in NYC still, and I'm hanging out in my robe trying to get the Slingbox to work so I can catch snippets of speeches. AND the BBC isn't fully showing coverage (the nerve! Premier League football is NOT more important!).

I wanted to see it from American TV, but resorted to the BBC and saw a map tracing how the results came in through the night before reading any headlines on CNN, or status updates on Facebook.

[As an aside, they pronounce his name oddly as "ba-rack" (equal emphasis on each syllable, with the "a" sounding as in "map", not "far", not bah-RAHK. It's odd.]

Here's what I saw. A very odd distortion of our country.




You can't hear the guy, but he's distorted the map to show voting power, not geographical size, of each State. He also goes on to say that it was a "filthy" win (i.e. huge). Ah, funny Brits.

So, with the bits & pieces I've been able to capture, I've so far figured out:

- Obama was elected in an electoral college was a landslide.

- The popular vote was only 52% Obama, 47% McCain (does this mean many of the undecideds from the polls went Republican?).

- Obama gave a very short speech that mostly uplifting but started warning people about false starts and setbacks.

- Only 2 people I know on Facebook are admitting disappointment in the result (though I know there are others). Hi ladies, I know you're reading! :-)

Given my moderate indecision casting my ballot, I have a pretty lukewarm feeling about the result. I'm excited about the historic nature of the moment. It's amazing to bear witness to it. But he's not a miracle-worker, which is fine, because I don't agree with most of the "miracles" he'd work if it were possible.

So, we've got ourselves a reformulation, a packaging redesign, and a sparkly "new & improved" burst to show off to the world. Let's find out if the Change is positive, real & sustainable, or just a quick uplift we'll feel warm + fuzzy about in the near term.

3 comments:

Melissa Kulluk said...

I've officially declared my disappointment on Facebook, but I had to wait until at least the majority of the returns were actually in and the results weren't just based on projections. Sadly, my "Dewey beats Truman" hopes for this election didn't come true this morning.

ryu said...

Hey Jess,

Wish you'd of had more access to the coverage here, very moving.

To answer your question:

"Does this mean many of the undecideds from the polls went Republican?"

Depends on the polls. The pollsters were surprisingly accurate Gallup, R2K, (even) Zogby and Rasmussen all had the race at 51-52 Obama, with McCain at 45-47% for about the last week of the campaign.

So it looks like the undecideds broke pretty even and unlike 2004 there was no "Shy Tory Syndrome" - i.e., where people say they are undecided because they are embarrassed to tell voters which way they are leaning.

Also, there was no Bradley Effect, and if anything Obama won a greater percentage of the White vote than any democrat since LBJ (I think I heard that this morning).

So where did the votes come from and what changed from 04?

Obama won the two groups that Dems had been crapping themselves he couldn't after the primary with Clinton. He got 66% of the Hispanic vote (which Bush carried big in 04 - and got him New Mexico and Colorado) and 55% of the female vote. He got 80+% of the Hillary vote.

He also found an interesting segment across countries that allowed him to win states with low Afro-American pops: whites with 4 years of college, who made him the first dem they've supported ever. This was big in Colorado and Iowa.

Finally, Florida was the big nail in the coffin, and it looks like third generation Cubans voted Dem for the first time, a big reversal for a group thats historically voted red.

We miss you.

Ryu

Julia said...

disappointment does not cut it.... feeling more anger that the country just elected someone purely based on abstract thoughts of "change" and "hope".... but no one knows what the change is to, or what the hope is for.... disgusted is more like it!!! I'm going to exercise my 2nd amendment before these liberals take it away from me!